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The Lancet has published a new study by Dr You Li and colleagues purporting to show that various non-pharmaceutical interventions NPIs have a significant impact on reducing infections.
From the conclusion:. The study has numerous problems, many of which the authors themselves list in the discussion.
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They claim, for instance, that closing schools and banning public events have the largest impact on infection rates. But they acknowledge that these were usually the first interventions brought in and that the large impact may just reflect that earliness. They also claim schools are major drivers of infection, citing one study about the high viral load in five year-olds, but ignoring all the studies that show closing schools made little or no difference. Likewise, if public events are banned then they are banned.
Why then the delay and variation? Crucially, there is no sign they have considered how much of the decline in R would have happened anyway, due to natural epidemic decline herd immunity. In some ways, though, this study is welcome to sceptics because it concedes that most interventions have no clear impact, and even for those that do the effect is very limited. None that I can see. These are among the key findings from focus groups that suggest traditional opinion polls have failed to spot a decisive change in attitudes toward the pandemic. One leading pollster believes Britain could be witnessing a repeat of what happened in the election and the EU referendum.
Since the start of the pandemic most polls have suggested voters support lockdowns and, if anything, want the Government to impose even more stringent curbs. Some have argued this is because furloughed workers have been able to stay at home on 80 per cent of their normal wages thanks to taxpayer funds. Carried out last Friday, and comprising a cross-section of society, both Tory and Labour, in London, Birmingham and Liverpool, it appears to show voters have lost faith in lockdowns and are no longer prepared to obey all the rules.
They also think the second wave of the virus will be less dangerous, are increasingly worried about the damage to jobs and the economy. The pollster who conducted these focus groups, James Johnson, has written up his findings for the paper. The belief that the NHS is under threat; the conviction that in the absence of further restrictions on personal liberties and economic activity, we risk hundreds of thousands of excess deaths? The virus is out to get us; and any evidence that suggests otherwise just shows how cunning it is, and how cautious we need to be to protect ourselves against its malevolence.
But we love her. And a visit to Albania — once the last Communist dictatorship in Europe — proves no different. Of course, Albania does have some coronavirus restrictions. Masks are compulsory in most indoor spaces restaurants and bars excluded , but the take-up is far patchier than in Britain. The collective mentality seems to be that, whatever the law might say, masks remain a matter of personal choice. In a short weekend break, I spot the occasional social distancing sign in a window but nothing more than that.
There are no restrictions on how many people can enter a shop or sit on a bus. No martials policing the streets. No irritating one-way systems or taped-over seating. As with most poorer countries in Europe, customer-facing businesses in Albania tend to be small and independent, often run directly by owners. From serving customers to sweeping the floors at closing time, the average Alabanian coffee shop owner has enough to worry about without fussing about whether customers are wearing masks. Nor do they receive orders from a nervous head office intent on minimising potential liability.
You get the sense that — even putting the virus aside — rules and regulations carry less weight here than they do in the more litigious and bureaucratic West. Cigarettes, for example, are available virtually everywhere and restaurants seem to have the automatic right to let customers smoke — even in a shopping mall. When chatting to a bar owner later, I find out there are some other rules in place. One of the new rules, he says, is that pubs and bars are banned from playing music after 8pm.
Does he follow the rule I ask?
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Of course not, he laughs. The idea that he could be fined or shut down seems alien to him. Come midnight, the music is louder than when I arrived. So how is it all working out for Albania?
Their daily coronavirus deaths are still in the single figures but have been steadily ticking away for months now. In typically Balkan style, they have effectively arrived at the Swedish model well, plus masks by default rather than design. While the aim is to let people know about upcoming funerals, seeing those black and white photos also reminds you that death is always out there. Perhaps it helps maintain perspective — and keep away the paralysing fear that has gripped so much of western Europe? If Neil Ferguson was right, there would be paper blowing everywhere. We have a team of moderators in place to remove spam and deal with the trolls, but sometimes it takes a little while so please bear with us.
You have to register to use the Forums, but that should just be a one-time thing. Any problems, email the Lockdown Sceptics webmaster Ian Rons here. Please do share the stories with your friends and on social media. You can print out and laminate a fairly standard one for free here and it has the advantage of not explicitly claiming you have a disability. A reader has started a website that contains some useful guidance about how you can claim legal exemption.
Koops, who has a doctorate in organic chemistry. These three scientists are every bit as eminent — more eminent — than the pro-lockdown fanatics so expect no let up in the attacks. The Queenstown Airport Corporation QAC has undertaken not to advance its expansion plans for the next two and a-half years. Advertising Feature.
New World Wine Awards Top The marine employee cluster has increased to include three other positive cases and has businesses throughout Auckland scrambling after being alerted to links to new infections. Four people have died on New Zealand roads since the Labour weekend started, surpassing last year's toll for the entire holiday period.
Please untick this box if you do not wish to receive weekly newsletters. KPMG Personalization. Armed with varying skill levels, we watch as novice flippers attempt to turn a disaster house into a high dollar flip. A Total Station consists of a theodolite with a built-in distance meter that can measure angles and distances simultaneously. Banks hike mortgage interest rates amid boom in applicants. Bay of Plenty. In January , the then Police Commissioner , Peter Doone , resigned after The Sunday Star-Times alleged he had prevented the breath testing of his partner Robyn, who had driven the car they occupied, by telling the officer "that won't be necessary".
A collapsed roof, seismic strengthening and Covid disruptions put Gillian Sugiyama on a long and winding road before opening her Takeichi Ramen store. Concern from a member of the public sparked a full-scale search for a paraglider near the Skyline Gondola in Queenstown yesterday. The driver of a vehicle which allegedly hit a child in Queenstown's Shotover Country on Tuesday morning will not be prosecuted.
Do not wait and hope. The moon reached first quarter at 2. At sunset, it will be high in the northern sky. Peonies need a cold enough temperature to enable dormancy for about 60 days. Thank you, Dunedin. Rural Life. A shearer who twice struck a lamb because it broke his shearing comb, causing injuries that resulted in its death, has been jailed for 16 months.
Charles Innes looks too rugged to be a man who cannot sleep at night for worry. Fruit picking and other rural work are likely to feature strongly among tertiary student job options in Otago as a difficult summer holiday work season approaches. A former Invercargill City councillor believes a freshen-up of local body representatives would be the best for ratepayers.